FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: June 17, 2025
CONTACT: Jordan Buchman, [email protected], (303) 667-8091
[email protected], 774-231-8657
After Heated Second Debate and SuperPAC Attacks, Mamdani and Cuomo Race to Statistical Tie
In a sample of 580 likely Democratic voters in New York City, Zohran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo are neck-and-neck despite unprecedented spending by pro-Cuomo SuperPACs, making GOTV and remaining cross endorsements increasingly decisive.
NEW YORK, N.Y. - In the first poll conducted after the second Democratic mayoral debate, Zohran Mamdani is now tied in a statistical dead heat with primary opponent Andrew Cuomo.
The debate kicked off the race’s final stretch, as the field united to highlight Cuomo's corruption and chaos, leading to several viral moments from Mamdani. Despite Cuomo's SuperPAC’s new focus on attacking Mamdani, the two remain in a virtual tie.
Said the DREAM Campaign: "This poll cements what DREAM has said from the beginning: the more New Yorkers see how corrupt and chaotic Cuomo is, the less they'll rank him. At this stage, not even Cuomo's barrage of Republican funded ads can change that this race will come down to the margin of effort, and remaining cross endorsements."
From June 13-16, the Center for Strategic Politics conducted a survey of 580 likely Democratic voters in New York City. The poll was funded by New Yorkers for a Better New York Today, the independent expenditure behind the Don’t Rank Evil Andrew for Mayor, or DREAM, campaign. Voters were asked to rank up to five candidates in order of preference in accordance with New York City’s ranked choice system for city primary elections. They were also polled on whether they agreed with paying for Cuomo’s lawsuits against the women he sexually harassed, his defense of President Donald Trump against investigation, Zohran’s proposal for a rent freeze, and the candidates’ attractiveness.
Key Findings:
- While Zohran Mamdani and Andrew Cuomo are separated by 8% in the first round of ranked-choice voting, transfers from other candidates reduce that gap to 4% (within the margin of error) by the final round. In the final round Adrienne Adams’ votes nearly split between Mamdani and Cuomo (10%/8%), showing that an Adams-Mamdani cross endorsement could be the difference in beating Cuomo.
- 52% of voters rate Zohran Mamdani 7 or above on a 1-10 scale of physical attractiveness, while 58% of voters rate Andrew Cuomo 5 or lower
- Beyond attractiveness, voters have a far more favorable general view of Zohran Mamdani (+44%) than Andrew Cuomo (+12%). Additionally, 14% of voters don’t know enough about Zohran Mamdani to give an opinion, highlighting the frantic race between campaigns to define Mamdani for this group.
- In addition to the upcoming election, voters were also asked to weigh in on a hypothetical Senate election between Bronx natives and U.S. Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ritchie Torres. Ocasio-Cortez secures 52%, compared to Torres’ 23%.
- When asked to consider the impacts of endorsements from several political organizations on their likelihood to support a candidate, voters broke heavily in favor of the left-wing Democratic Socialists of America (+24%) and Working Families Party (+42%). The zionist American Israel Public Affairs Committee did not fare as well, with voters finding an endorsement from the increasingly-controversial group to be a net negative (-5%).
- After hearing the facts, voters are strongly against Andrew Cuomo’s taxpayer-funded lawsuits against over a dozen women who have accused him of sexual harassment. Only 13% of respondents support tax dollars going towards these lawsuits, while 77% oppose the practice.
- Over 3/4ths of voters support freezing rent for stabilized tenants, a key plank of Zohran Mamdani’s platform.
Methodology:
From June 13th to June 16th, 2025, the Center for Strategic Politics conducted an English-language survey of 580 likely Democratic voters in New York City using random device engagement. Respondents outside the sampled population were screened by self-identification. The sample was weighted to be representative of the projected electorate for the June 24th, 2025 Democratic primary in respect to age, ethnicity, gender, and borough. The margin of error is ±4.07%.
Crosstabs:
All crosstabs for this survey are available here: http://stratpolitics.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/DREAM_CSP-NYC-Poll.pdf
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The Center for Strategic Politics is an up-and-coming policy think tank where ideas shape the future of governance, analysis, and critical discourse. We conduct public opinion polling for ourselves and our progressive partners.
DREAM (Don’t Rank Evil Andrew for Mayor) is a campaign to show voters both how and why to prevent Andrew Cuomo from becoming the mayor of NYC. Since launching in February, DREAM has shaped the race by aligning anti-Cuomo candidates, political groups, and voters behind the DREAM message and strategy.
